MARKETVIEWTRACKER · NDX
Methodology and source status
This service is not investment advice; it records and evaluates public forecasts.
We automatically structure source material and publish it after an independent cross-check.
Current methodology
mvt-1.0.0 ·
Initial Nasdaq-100 live evaluation methodology.
Horizon
- 1 day · 1 trading sessions
- 1 week · 5 trading sessions
- 1 month · 21 trading sessions
- 3 months · 63 trading sessions
- 1 year · 252 trading sessions
Neutral band
max(0.25%, 0.25 × annualized_volatility_20 × sqrt(h / 252))Scoring formulas
MVT compares each consensus fixed in advance with the realized NDX direction after its standard-horizon maturity, replaying the constituents and methodology frozen at that time.
- Direction accuracy
hits / matured forecasts- DSI
b = clamp(5y horizon baseline, 0.01, 0.99); a_shrunk = (hits + 20 × b) / (n + 20); DSI = a_shrunk ≥ b ? 50 + 50 × (a_shrunk − b) / (1 − b) : 50 × a_shrunk / b- Direction test
- Direction test is disclosed from 30 samples
- Brier
Σ(class probability − observed class)²- Brier Skill
1 − Brier_forecast / Brier_baseline
Sample disclosure
- 0–9 Insufficient
- 10–29 Provisional
- 30–49 Rankable
- 50–∞ High confidence
Source collection status
| Source | Expert | Evaluation status | Last success | Last failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Wealth of Common Senserss · 60m | Ben Carlson | Healthy | ||
| Calculated Riskrss · 60m | Bill McBride | Healthy | Not available yet | |
| Lyn Aldenrss · 60m | Lyn Alden | Healthy | Not available yet | |
| Of Dollars And Datarss · 60m | Nick Maggiulli | Healthy | Not available yet | |
| Pragmatic Capitalismrss · 60m | Cullen Roche | Healthy | Not available yet | |
| QQQ notesrss · 60m | Alexander Campbell | Healthy | Not available yet | |
| Swing Trade Notesrss · 60m | Scott Henderson | Healthy | ||
| The Barkworthy Notesrss · 60m | Barkworth | Healthy | Not available yet | |
| The NQ Market Wizardrss · 60m | The Nasdaq (NQ) Wizard | Healthy | Not available yet |